As PTI comes onto two years, I felt like making this post on account of seeing multiple people supporting PML-N for having an allegedly better economy for Pakistan, particularly with allegations present that PTI has done nothing for the economy. So here's a short list of some major achievements done by PTI in contrast to PML-N.
Stopping Pakistan from defaulting: The move to devalue the rupee was one done despite knowing the backlash that would be faced. Under Nawaz Sharif the rupee was artificially overvalued through loans and forex reserves, this meant Pakistan had no sustainable way for repaying those massive loans. Imran Khan on the other hand had to approach the IMF due to these overlaying maturing debts, lack of growth in exports under PMLN, decline in Foreign Direct Investment and an ever higher import bill. This was done at the cost of letting the rupee massively devalue against the dollar, however paved the path for economic stability as noted by the IMF.
Renewed focus on taxation: Easily the most controversial facet of the economic policy by PTI, but one that has shown merit and results. Overall, there has been a 40% increase in returns filers and a 17% revenue increase. This coupled with a massive austerity scheme, meant that the government has started an incline towards increasing it's revenues. While this hasn't been met with open arms, it presents a solution to the everpresent crisis that the Pakistan government has faced, in it's inability to increase it's revenues. Not only that, but the general taxation system was streamlined, making it easier for individuals to file taxes. Introductions of new apps and consolidating activities for the FBR were among the efforts as well. Moreover, businesses that were entitled to tax refunds are finally being granted them, under PMLN they were held onto so as to inflate collection numbers, however under PTI that has changed and it's not inflated. It is worth noting, that because of the covid-19 pandemic, the effect of the austerity schemes and feasibility have seriously dampened, and it's created a bigger problem for increasing revenue collection.
It is worth noting, that some may criticise the overall decrease in the account deficit to be a result of the decrease in imports, and the increase in worker remittances, however this was indeed a result of the overall economic impact from the covid-19 pandemic. And that general trends support the notion of exports increasing and the account deficit decreasing in the second quarter of 2019.
Tourism: The reforms and measures taken to facilitate tourism in Pakistan were evidently among the most successful — Pakistan went from being sidelined to being amongst the worlds top destinations to visit. There were multiple reasons for this, the removal of the mandatory NOC, the initiative for online visas for upto 175 countries alongside visa-on-arrival for 50 countries were among the facilitating measures taken for tourism.
Foreign Direct Investment: What can be appreciated is the general reception of Pakistan's economic outlook, where FDI climbed by upto 137% within this fiscal year, gathering upto nearly $2.1 billion. Yet, once again — the pandemic will undoubtedly cause most countries to rethink their economic policies for now, and the overall FDI might see a downward trend with regards to global decrease in FDI. Despite, the increases in FDI are welcomed, especially considering total foreign investment rose 380 percent to $2.375 billion in July-March FY2020. Yet the sustainability of this remains to be seen.
Dealing with covid: Despite all odds, Pakistan has somehow managed to deal well with the pandemic. Coming out relatively alright, in perspective of countries such as India, Mexico, Italy, Brazil etc. The factor that plays out, is that despite being incredibly vulnerable, the country managed to pull through and has markedly reduced the impact of the virus. With regards to the economy, taking a bold risk of abating a complete lockdown, whilst met with criticism was once again a factor that showed competency. Keeping in mind that 51 million Pakistanis lived below the poverty line, and the adverse effect it would have on the economy. Pakistan managed to come through the economic contraction with only a -0.38% growth. Although the full effects are still not abated or understood, what's commendable is the fact that Pakistan under PTI has kept itself from an even worse situation. Whilst managing to keep covid under relative control. Especially given increases in exports despite the pandemic in countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Italy.
This is by no means a highly comprehensive list, just my opinion on some of the bigger achievements; saving the economy from defaulting, adopting tax reforms, tourism reforms, export reforms among them whilst managing covid and economic stability with relative success. There are of course a multitude of other factors, successfully avoiding a blacklist from the FATF, macroeconomic reforms, attempts to strengthen the working class; ehsaas programs, Naya Pakistan housing schemes alongside other relief efforts. These are measures in accordance with curtailing the effect of increasing taxation and attempts to abate the economic slowdown that came as a result of forcing an increase in government revenue. Alongside the focus on multiple new hydroelectric dams, industrial cities, reduction of the PM office staff from 552 to 298, 10 billion tree project and an overall renewed interest in renewable energy and green Pakistan. The list is comprehensive. Pakistan remains on a rocky path, it is not out of the woods yet. Covid-19 has seriously hampered the overall projections, and caused a worldwide economic contraction. Not only that, but there are criticisms that can be attributed to the government as well, as they are not without fault. However, the overall achievements of the government with regards to the economy do present hope for the long-term fiscal policy and development of Pakistan.
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February 2030 The rollout of the GCC currency union has been planned for almost three decades, dating back to 2001 when the Supreme Council of the GCC set the goal of creating a common currency by 2010. It has been a saga of seemingly infinite delays, with deadlines coming and going, pushed back due to debates over what shape the union should take and how its governance should function. Most recently, Saudi Arabia pushed the idea of reviving the single currency in 2020, but this initiative died when the country broke into civil war in 2023. It lingered in limbo until 2026 when the UAE convinced the GCC to move ahead with the implementation of the single currency, to be called the Khaleeji, by 2027. When the Arab Oil Embargo against China started in 2027, everyone with half a brain thought that this would lead to another delay of the Khaleeji project. Surely the people in charge of implementing the new currency would not be stupid enough to try to roll out the new currency in the middle of a geopolitical economic crisis? This did not turn out to be the case. For some reason (we’ll chalk it up to incompetency, but who the hell really knows?), the Gulf States decided to push ahead with the implementation of the Khaleeji later that year. It went about as well as expected--which is to say, not at all. The Arab Gulf States immediately found themselves eating through foreign currency reserves trying to prop up the 1.00:3.00 Khaleeji:USD exchange rate (which was selected since it is around the current pegged exchange rate between several Gulf currencies and the USD-- the Bahraini Dinar trades at 1.00:2.65, the Kuwaiti Dinar trades at 1.00:3.27, and the Omani Rial trades at 1.00:2.60). Though the oil embargo was lifted at the end of 2028, confidence in the new currency is somewhat shaky, making the 1:3 exchange rate difficult to maintain. Still, not everything is bad for the new currency: with Bahrain mostly stabilized and set to join the currency union later this year, and Saudi Arabia on its way there, the Khaleeji should soon have two new adherents, boosting the power of the currency. In order to ease some of these concerns and reverse FOREX outflows, the Central Bank in Dubai has elected to devalue the Khaleeji by about 6 percent, dropping its exchange rate to 1.00:2.80. This is expected to improve the health of the currency, which should translate into better economic performance. It’ll also have the unintended consequence of making exports from within the currency union relatively cheaper on the international market, boosting exports a little (except for oil and natural gas exports, which are traded in USD). Between these two policies, the Khaleeji should be stabilized, barring any sort of unfortunate shake ups in the global markets in the near future. The Benefits of the Khaleeji Perhaps the most immediately apparent benefit of the Khaleeji for the Arab Gulf States is how it has made trade between the GCC member states significantly easier. Previously, firms doing business in multiple member states had to account for the different currencies of each. Even though all of the currencies were pegged to the USD, this still posed a significant administrative burden which has now been wiped away, reducing the cost of doing business in the GCC and making it a more attractive market for international investment. An unexpected, but nevertheless significant, benefit of the Khaleeji has been the expansion of tourism in the GCC. Now that there is no need to exchange currencies, tourists have found it increasingly viable to land in one member state, travel to another (using the vastly improved infrastructure between the states, including the Gulf Railway high speed passenger rail), and then leave from that state, spreading out their spending and increasing the attractiveness of the GCC as a whole as a tourist destination. Qatar has emerged as a big winner of this. Previously, Qatar and the UAE were locked in a sort of arms race competing for tourism revenues--a war that Dubai, as the most popular tourist destination in the world, was clearly winning. With the implementation of the Khaleeji making it easier than ever to move from one country in the GCC to the other, Doha can now cast itself as an addition to Dubai rather than a direct competitor. Tourism agencies in Doha are already looking to recast the city as the “middle stop” of a larger tour route between Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Manama, looking to attract tourists already heading to Dubai to Doha for at least part of their trip. Qatar is also emerging as a popular destination for foreign direct investment looking to capture part of the rapidly growing GCC market, since Qatar has been one of the more stable GCC member states over the past decade. Currency Details
Photo: Internet Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, the global economy has entered a recession, with gold soaring, stock markets tumbling, and oil prices plummeting. Saudi Arabia cut pricing for oil sales to Asia and the U.S. for October shipments, and the reduction exceeded last month. Global daily oil consumption (total liquid volume) broke the "100 million barrels" mark for the first time in 2019, reaching 10.96 million barrels. It means the global daily consumption is more than 100 million barrels, and the annual consumption is more than 5 billion tons. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, fuel demand has decreased significantly, while global oil supply has continued to increase. Global oil consumption has decreased by nearly a quarter due to COVID-19. The global daily oil consumption level in the second quarter of this year was less than 77 million barrels, which is almost 20 years ago. 20th April saw WTI oil prices plunge from $17.85 to -$37.63, more than a 300% drop, the largest one day drop for U.S. crude in history. The oil prices up and down in history, and various factors impact the oil prices. One of the most critical factors is OPEC. The Birth of OPEC The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela. Before the OPEC, the Seven Sisters (E Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, Gulf Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Socony, Standard Oil Company of New York, and Texaco) controlled the world's oil markets. In the 1950s, coal was the most critical fuel globally, but oil consumption increased rapidly, and demand continued to grow. In 1959, the United States' Seven Sisters lowered the price of oil produced in Venezuela and the Middle East by 10% to reduce the United States' price. To counter the U.S. oil monopoly, OPEC was born. OPEC's 13 members control approximately 30% of global oil supplies and 79.4% of proven reserves. OPEC member nations produce about 42% of the world's crude oil, and OPEC's oil exports account for roughly 60% of the total petroleum traded worldwide. Photo: OPEC Impact of OPEC on Oil Prices Within the OPEC group, Saudi Arabia is the largest crude oil producer in the world and remains the most dominant member of OPEC, with each instance of a cut in oil production by them, resulting in a sharp rise in oil prices, and vice versa. Additionally, the 'kingdom of Saud' is also the leading exporter of crude oil globally. Since 2000, all historical instances since the 1973 Arab oil embargo indicate that Saudi Arabia has maintained its upper hand in the oil market. It calls the shots in determining crude oil prices by controlling supply. All major oil price fluctuations in recent history can be clearly attributed to production levels from Saudi Arabia, along with other OPEC nations. Is it now the end of OPEC? The success of shale oil and the plunge in oil prices in 2014 are signs that OPEC has declined. Since 2014, U.S. shale oil has created a boom in domestic crude oil production. Shale oil comprises more than a third of the onshore production of crude oil in the lower 48 states. It drove U.S. oil output from 8.8 million barrels per day in 2014 to a record 12.2 million barrels a day in 2019. As a result, the United States became the world's largest crude-oil producer. Photo: EIA
Photo: EIA Today the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Russia rank among the top three in world oil production. Photo: EIA Photo: EIA In November 2014, despite the appeals of other OPEC members to cut production, Saudi Arabia suddenly increased production sharply, trying to defeat U.S. shale oil companies through the competitive increase in OPEC member states. But American shale oil survived strongly by borrowing, and it became more efficient, and production costs were greatly reduced. During this time, Saudi Arabia's economy is declining rapidly. Saudi Arabia had the highest government deficit in history-98 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 15% of GDP in 2015. In 2016, Saudi Arabia led OPEC and Russia to reach an OPEC+ production reduction agreement. Since then, oil prices have steadily rebounded. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has begun to consider taking advantage of high oil prices to list Saudi Aramco to ease domestic financial difficulties. During this period, OPEC +'s reduction in production has rescued U.S. shale oil again. The production capacity of shale oil has increased sharply by 4 million barrels per day, surpassing Saudi Arabia, and Russia. So far, the OPEC structure and cohesion continues to divide and elude. On 8th March 2020, Saudi Arabia initiated a price war with Russia, facilitating a 65% quarterly fall in the price of oil. The price war was triggered by a break-up in dialogue between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia over proposed oil-production cuts in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Russia walked out of the agreement, leading to the fall of the OPEC+ alliance. While past oil shocks have been driven by either supply or demand, the price collapse of 2020 is highly unusual in oil market history: It results from a massive demand shock and a huge supply overhang at the same time. https://preview.redd.it/2smucmlke1n51.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=63932270640be1913c8d41214418073a57b1646a https://preview.redd.it/34m0nn3me1n51.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=6519e7614205955da1fe6b02437048ec461249dc For more information please download “TOP 1 Markets” at APP store or google play. https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.top1.trading.forex.commodity.cryptocurrency.indices top1markets： https://itunes.apple.com/my/app/id1461741702 top one： https://itunes.apple.com/tw/app/id1506200136
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November 2030 Well, uh, this sucks. Just a few short months after the Arab States of the Gulf finally unified, the world economy decided to explode. This is what we in the business of economics call a very bad thing. The effects across the FAS have been relatively disparate. The United Arab Emirates, easily the most diversified economy in the region, has been the least heavily impacted (though it's still bad). Diversification programs in Oman and Bahrain have also helped to stave off some of the worst impacts of the crisis, though they haven't been as successful in avoiding the effects as the UAE. Qatar and Kuwait, still almost entirely reliant on hydrocarbon exports, are not happy with this turn of events. Falling global oil prices, though propped up a little by a sudden increase in demand from China, have left their economies struggling much more than the rest of the country, and in desperate need of assistance from the better off parts of the country. One major pain point in this crisis has been the FAS's economic ties to the United States. While most of the FAS's trade is with Asia, Africa, and Europe, the US financial system still plays a crucial role in the FAS. The stability of the US Dollar has long been used to protect the economies of the Gulf using their vast Forex reserves (earned from oil sales) to peg their currency to the US Dollar. With the US Dollar in complete collapse, the value of the Khaleeji is plummeting right along with it, causing a significant degree of harm to the FAS's economy. To help offset this harm (and to decouple the FAS's economy from a country that the FAS is starting to view as maybe not the most reliable economic partner), the Central Bank in Dubai has announced that the Khaleeji will switch its peg from the US Dollar to a basket of foreign currencies (the Euro, the Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar, and the Japanese Yen). The FAS hopes that this will help to salvage the Khaleeji's value, better protecting the economy from the collapse of the dollar-based international financial system. Rumor has it that the Central Bank is discussing the idea of unpegging the Khaleeji entirely and allowing it to float freely, but so far, the Central Bank has made no moves towards floating the Khaleeji. Crises suck. They shatter the status quo and throw established norms and procedures into chaos. No one really wins during a crisis. But in another sense, they're a double-edged sword. The status quo is often a repressive entity, reinforcing existing hierarchies and preventing dramatic shifts in the order of things. Chaos breaks that apart, giving the ingenuitive and the entrepreneurial on opportunity to better their lot in ways they otherwise could not. Put differently: chaos is a ladder, and the FAS intends to be the one climbing it. As the largest economy in the Arab World (and one of the world's 20 largest economies) by both nominal GDP and GDP per capita (by a significant margin--it's probably either Saudi Arabia or Egypt in second place in nominal GDP, and definitely Saudi Arabia in second place in GDP per capita, but the FAS more than doubles the country in second place in both categories, so it's sort of a moot point), the FAS hopes to cement its place as the regional economic power. The FAS has announced a new slate of policies intended to attract rich investors, manufacturing firms, and financiers fleeing the new nationalization program of the United States. New free trade zones have been created throughout the country--especially in the struggling, undiversified regions of Kuwait and Qatar--with the goal of convincing fleeing American manufacturers to set up shop in these areas. Attractions include wildly low tax rates (as low as zero percent in some instances), a common law framework (as opposed to the Sharia-based legal system in most of the FAS), highly subsidized land prices (sometimes free), relaxed financial restrictions (making it easier to move money in and out of the FTZ), and, for large enough firms moving enough operations into the country, preferential visa treatment (making it easier for them to relocate foreign employees into the country). Sitting at one of the major crossroads of global trade, moving operations to the FAS offers easy access to both the world's established consumer markets (like the EU and East Asia) as well as to some of its largest growing markets (South and Southeast Asia, East Africa, and MENA). Pair this with wildly high standards of living (for people who aren't slaves Asian or African migrant workers) and established expatriate communities, and the FAS becomes an incredibly attractive option for American and other foreign firms looking to relocate. In addition to manufacturing-oriented FTZs, special attention has been paid to attracting service-oriented firms to new and existing FTZs in the vein of Dubai Internet City, Dubai Design District, Dubai Knowledge Park, and Dubai Media City, with the goal of developing a robust service economy that can capture growing markets in the MENA, South Asia, and East African regions. In advertising these zones, the governments of the FAS have highlighted the success of previous ventures in Dubai, which have attracted the regional headquarters of giants like Facebook, Intel, LinkedIn, Google, Dell, Samsung, Microsoft, IBM, Tata Consultancy, and more. Perhaps one of the most substantial pushes, though, is to attract American financial services and FinTech firms to base in the FAS (particularly Dubai, Kuwait City, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, the traditional centers of regional finance). New financial industry free trade zones have been set up in the four cities, structured in the vein of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). These financial FTZs boast an independent and internationally regulated regulatory and judicial system, a common law framework, and extremely low taxation rates. All government services in these regions are available in English (the lingua franca of international finance), and in events where ambiguity exists in the legal and regulatory systems, the systems are set to default to English Common Law (except for the Kuwait City International Financial Centre, which is hoping to better tailor itself towards American financial firms by defaulting to American Civil Law from pre-2020 rather than English Common Law). Much like in the DIFC, these new FTZs will also run their own courts, staffed in large part by top judicial talent from Common Law (or in the case of Kuwait City, American Civil Law) jurisdictions like Singapore, England, and (formerly) Hong Kong. Using these FTZ, the four cities hope to raise their profile as financial centers. Dubai in particular is hoping to break into the top ten global financial centers--and it stands a good chance of doing so, too, as it sits at number 12, just behind cities like LA, SF, and Shenzhen--while the other cities are just hoping to boost their profile into the 20s or 10s (according to Long Finance, Dubai is number 12 in the world and 1 in the region, Abu Dhabi is number 39 in the world and two in the region, Doha is number 48 in the world, and Kuwait City is number 91).
[M] This meme I made describes how I feel right now, why can’t my economy just be normal and just function, very upsetting. [/M] The Russian economy is in freefall, which is quite an unfortunate problem to say the least. After experiencing minor growth for the past two years, the economy has decided to kill itself, which can be quite an issue when unemployment skyrockets to 22%, and the value of the rouble drops faster than Saudi Arabia’s chance of not being stuck in an eternal civil war. Taking experience from the 2008-2009 and the 2014-2017 Russian financial crises, we are well prepared to restore economic order to the country. This must be done quickly, as the longer we stall around, the more our people shall suffer, and the odds of escaping this pit of economic despair shrink. To escape this financial crisis, there are three main fields that need to be addressed extensively to prevent the economy from detonating on itself. The first field being social welfare and the lives of the people within Russia. With unemployment at 22%, the people of Russia will be suffering, and if we are to emerge from this crisis, we need to work with them and ensure their safety and wellbeing to recover faster. The second field is the rouble, and the general state of the economy. The value of the rouble has skyrocketed, and inflation is running rampant, which if this is allowed to continue, will decimate our economy even more, so this must be brought under control as soon as possible. Furthermore, many businesses and factories in the country have slashed employees and have almost gone out of business themself, so drastic action needs to be taken there. Finally, the final field being the roots of the crisis, corruption, and the sanctions on Russia from the west. The roots of the problem need to be pruned so that a disaster like this never happens again. Russia is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now, but this is our trying moment. If we emerge from this disaster, we will come out stronger than ever before, and will become closer as a country, showing that Russia is the only way forward. Through cooperation between the people and the government, we will make it through this crisis. Field One: Welfare One of the key fields of this crisis that needs to be addressed is the welfare of the people. Unemployment is at a record 22%, and this must be addressed before anything else can be done. With this many people unemployed and not able to get jobs, this will cause havoc all across Russia as people will struggle to make ends meet in terms of living their lives. To counteract the immediate issues that this will cause, food, shelter, and other amenities for people need to be secured and guaranteed. First off, guaranteeing food for all people who are unable to afford it or acquire it while being unemployed. In recent years our production of all agricultural goods has skyrocketed due to the introduction of GMOs, so we can provide government “soup kitchens” for the unemployed to come and reliably get food. The government will provide the farmers with money for their crops, and in return the food can be placed into these free places for people to eat, therefore avoiding the concern of people starving. Housing will not be as critical of an issue, as there is state housing available, but it is limited in capacity, so something must still be done. This issue can be solved with the issue of unemployment, which I will elaborate on further. Essentially, new state housing will be built in all places that need housing for the unemployed, and this can provide temporary residences for the people to stay out of the elements when the time comes. As for things like health care and such, these are provided by the government, and due to the recession, funding for them will be raised to account for the inevitable rise in human needs. To place a major dent in the issue of unemployment, much with what the United States did during the 1930s during the Great Depression, we will be taking a leaf out of their book and creating a plethora of new programs. The major program however, will be the program known as Rehabilitation Russia, which will revolve around infrastructure improvements all across Russia, and constructing new buildings as well. This ties into building new state housing, and draws inspiration from the programs from the American New Deal in the 1930s, namely the Works Progress Administration, Civilian Conservation Corps, and the Public Works Administration. All of these programs focused on providing work to unemployed people, and working on infrastructure around the country. This same principle can be applied in Russia, hopefully to the same degree of success. The temporary jobs granted through these programs can provide enough time for the factories that these people were laid off from to be up and running again. With all of this in place, this can grant additional benefit to Russia while also ensuring that these people do not go without jobs. While not everyone will get a job from these programs, it will stem the major flow of unemployment for the meantime, and hopefully grant enough time for the major sources of employment to reopen. Additionally, for those who are unemployed, the current unemployment benefits are nowhere close to being enough to allow a person to survive. Per month currently, each person only gets around 12-80$ of unemployment money, which is insultingly low. In this recession, with a large number of people in unemployment, this number needs to be increased drastically. To aid the people who are unemployed, the minimum amount of money that can be granted per month will be raised to $150 USD, and the maximum will be raised to $960 USD, which depends on the lifestyle of each person. Someone who has a large family will receive the larger benefit, and someone who is alone will be granted the smaller funds. By raising the unemployment benefits for the recession, this will allow for the people of Russia to still be able to actually survive during these uncertain times. The funding needed for this will come from slashing other budgets across the scale, and from loans from the Central Bank of Russia. These loans, of course, will be eventually repaid once the recession is over, but something must be done in the meantime to provide the people with a form of welfare and the means to survive. Field Two: The Economy: The rouble is in freefall, and the economy is about to be hit by a large train of shinkage, which is quite an issue to summarize. The first thing that must be done for the economy will be to stabilize the rouble. To stabilize the rouble, just like in 2014, the Central Bank of Russia will withdraw $5 billion USD to purchase roubles in the Russian economy to work on stabilizing the currency. Due to the large reserves of the Russian Federation, this can easily be accomplished, and should be more than enough towards stabilizing the rouble. This being done will go a long way towards climbing out the recession, as the stabilization of the rouble will bring back confidence in the economy. To help revive the economy, a government bailout program will be the way that the economy is saved. Russia has extensive reserves of foreign currencies (henceforth referred to as forex reserves) that we have been saving for an event like this for sometime, and now is the time to use them. While $5 billion USD from our forex reserves is being spent to prop up the rouble, this will not be enough to stabilize the economy totally. Therefore a bailout program on a massive scale is required, and the estimated total cost of the government program is $200 billion USD. Around $100-150 billion of this can be gained domestically through raising the VAT and other taxes, while also dipping into our forex reserves and slashing the budget of other ministries. The rest of this money, however, will be given as a bailout loan from the IMF, depending on how much they are willing to give us. This government bailout will be critical to prevent the entire country from entering further economic collapse, and will give us a swift rebound. Where the money goes for the bailouts, however, will be very important as the money is limited as to where it will go. Therefore the money will mainly be focused on reopening factories and bringing back old job positions before the recession. Furthermore, money will also be needed to bailout other important companies that went under in the recession, so focusing on other businesses other than manufacturing is also important, as more places other than that went under. Small businesses in particular are quite important as large numbers of them went under during the crisis, so further bailouts for them are needed. The money will be divided as follows, $100 billion towards manufacturing bailouts as this sector of the economy was the hardest hit from the recession, $50 billion for small businesses, as they were also hit particularly hard, and $50 billion for other sectors of the economy that were hit, but not as hard as the previously mentioned ones. Through these targeted bailouts and financial measures, this should stem the flow from the recession. These measures emanate those from both the 2008-2009 and the 2014-2017 financial crises, and things that worked then will work now. Acquiring the funding for the bailouts domestically, however, will be difficult, and drastic measures must be taken to ensure this. The value added tax in Russia in particular will be raised from 20% up to 27% for the foreseeable future until the financial crisis has passed, and then past then it will be restored to the normal levels. In particular, the taxes on natural resource extracting will be raised up 2% from whichever level it was previously (this is done because the rates fluctuate for each resource and I don’t want to spend 3 hours writing down each and every one). Through both of these specific taxes being raised, the money from this will be enough to enable the bailout measure to be mostly be funded domestically, rather than through IMF loans. The raising of these taxes is only a temporary measure, and once the recession is over, they will go back to their standard levels so as not to make our citizens' lives even more difficult. Field Three: The Roots of the Crisis Despite having extensive measures to stop a crisis like this from even happening, they were not enough to escape the roots of the problems that led to this happening. Corruption and sanctions from the EU were the drivers of this entire recession, and something must be done to combat each and every one of them. No more measures to just delay the inevitable, these issues all right here stop this year, or the next year, Russia will no longer play victim towards the whims of the roots. Action will be taken, and these issues will cease to exist. Corruption is something that Vladimir Putin has already touched upon at an earlier time, but this time more must be done. Anti-corruption courts were already empowered, and corruption in various different sectors of the government was dealt with to remove the epidemic of bribery that existed within the country. However, one part of corruption that has not been dealt with was tax fraud and tax evasion, which now more than ever is something that needs to be clamped down on. Following the model of the United State’s Internal Revenue Service (IRS), we can mimic their actions to catch those who attempt to deprive the government of their taxes. Russia has a right rate of tax evasion and tax fraud, and by checking over reports sent by their employers and other third parties, and comparing it to their taxes, we can catch people who commit tax fraud. This is an issue that Vladmir Putin feels strongly about, so he will be personally expecting results from this now, and in the future. By attacking those who commit tax fraud and tax evasion, we can also provide the government with more revenue that is sorely needed at this time. Sanctions from the EU, however, have already been lifted significantly, and this will serve as the rallying cause for our economy. With the aid of European trade coming in, this can serve to assist our economy in climbing out of the recession. While this is not agreeable for our policy, this is something that must be done to ensure the economy does not suffer anymore than it has to. In the future, once the recession is over however, Russia will return to its former strength and prosper once again. Government interventions into the recession that are swift and precise can help bring about an end to this recession sooner and better. Following methods that worked during the last recessions and financial crises, Russia can escape this calamity stronger than before.
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Job Openings Related To Middle Market Investment Bank
It is a mix of equity, mounted deposits, company bonds, liquid funds and authorities funds, among others. Based in your danger urge for food, you can determine how a lot of your cash may be invested in equities via NPS. Debt mutual fund schemes are suitable for traders who want regular returns. They are much less unstable and, therefore, thought of less risky compared to equity funds. Some of the middle-market banks resemble regional boutiques in that they concentrate on providing services to a specific trade or sector. For instance, one of the extra acknowledged center-market investment banking companies is KBW, an investment bank that focuses on working with monetary services sector companies. Some of the more well-recognized middle-market corporations are Piper Sandler Companies, Cowen Group, and Houlihan Lokey. National full-service center market corporations – Expand their companies to mix funding banking, wealth management, equity analysis, and brokerage and personal fairness companies. Banks are financial institutions offering a breadth of products and services, together with managing deposits, lending, wealth management, forex trade, and funding banking. Examples of properly-identified elite boutique funding banks are Lazard LLC, Evercore Group LLC, and Moelis & Company. The smallest of the investment banks, each when it comes to agency size and typical deal dimension, are the banks known as regional boutique banks. This lack of a succession plan, coupled with impending retirement, creates an urgency for these companies to alter arms, and bodes well for traders and corporations to amass, consolidate and develop them. Most senior debt suppliers will wrestle to supply all of the money wanted to fund an acquisition. It is comprised of corporations that are not giant enough to receive massive bank loans, yet it's too giant to receive small enterprise loans. Upstream movement from a microbusiness to being a center market entity necessitates that you just turn into a manager and learn to manage managers. Therefore, administration and hiring expertise are very important within the lower center market. put their give attention to the decrease center market section and improve proficiency in doing deals in the segment. The most amount that may be invested in the scheme Rs 15 lakh. At maturity, the investment amount is repaid to the senior citizen. In the occasion of death of senior citizen, the money will be paid to the nominee. SCSS has a five-yr tenure, which could be additional prolonged by three years as soon as the scheme matures. if you are able to leverage your skills to get an fairness stake someplace you need to be on the trail to more wealth. I'm just curious, but how does the efficient tax come out to 50%? Is it the AMTI that causes each marginal dollar to be so low or what? On December 1, 2005, Stifel Financial closed on the acquisition of the Legg Mason Capital Markets business from Citigroup Inc. The LM Capital Markets business acquired included investment banking, fairness and glued earnings analysis, equity gross sales and buying and selling, and taxable fastened income gross sales and buying and selling . These assets gave the company substantial research and capital market capabilities and reworked the corporate from a regional agency to a national one. Each of the bulge bracket banks operates internationally and has a large world, in addition to home, presence. Most bulge bracket banks also have industrial and retail banking divisions and generate extra income by cross-promoting monetary merchandise. The Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia is that nation's sovereign wealth fund. A hedge fund is an aggressively managed portfolio of investments that makes use of leveraged, lengthy, short and by-product positions. Credit Suisse came underneath fireplace from U.S. regulators for allowing its nicely-identified consumer confidentiality to help others avoid paying taxes. The firm has CHF 796 Billion in assets, equivalent to about $800 billion USD. The company has a serious U.S. presence, partially pushed by its merger with First Boston with a relationship going back to 1978. Eric Rosenberg lined small business and investing products for The Balance. Information Generational Group publishes on the World Wide Web may include references or cross references to other products, applications and providers that are not announced or out there in your nation. Lower middle market companies principally use mezzanine finance as a capital supply for acquisitions, although it can also be used for development capital, in addition to other monetary needs. It offers an a variety of benefits, similar to little to no dilution and a comparatively larger funding amount. One fascinating product for a non-US company is its focus in U.S. municipal finance . The bank also works in conventional investment banking services like M&A and fairness and debt market points. Most regular shoppers received’t want investment banking companies, but for rising companies and excessive-net-value individuals, an funding financial institution may supply distinctive financial services to meet your needs. An investment associate should deliver a spread of experience to the desk including a really strong observe report of execs who have successfully built center market corporations throughout a variety of industries. In an age the place capital has become a commodity, alignment round values quite than valuation alone is more and more essential to the profitable outcome of partaking non-public fairness. Investment banking compensation could not range all that much between working for one of many largest bulge bracket banks as in comparison with a smaller, elite boutique bank. While the bigger banks commonly handle bigger offers, those offers are few and much between smaller deals.
Stifel Employee Reviews
are monetary establishments or intermediaries that deal mostly with mid-market corporations, particularly for raising debt or fairness capital in addition to mergers and acquisitions.
Today, massive banks cater to their traditional clients, which incorporates particular person prospects and both massive and small corporations by providing savings and checking accounts, certificates of deposit, loans and similar companies.
Many of them also have companies that operate as funding banks, and work with corporate and institutional shoppers by offering underwriting of inventory offers, brokerage, and M&A advisory.
The definition of a business financial institution has advanced dramatically up to now a number of decades.
Middle market firms are mid-size companies having annual revenues from $10 million up to $500 million and one hundred to 2,000 staff.
Bank Of China focuses primarily on industrial banking actions similar to deposits and withdrawals, and international exchange. The bank also is even licensed to issue banknotes in Hong Kong and Macau. We specialize in delivering dependable, creative and compelling financing options to middle market corporations backed by personal equity sponsors. The firm’s credit experience also forms the inspiration of our Late Stage Lending enterprise and our Broadly Syndicated Loan funding program.
Are Investment Bankers Rich
I’m presently 21yrs old & finally transferred into a high 5 undergraduate enterprise program right here in Toronto, previously was learning biology for the mistaken causes. I tend to main in Accounting & Finance + Minors in Computer Science and Applied Statistics + Will be going by way of a rigorous coding bootcamp program. Yes, you might get extra consumer publicity and responsibilities in some teams, but you can additionally get stuck working on a lot of boring, normal sell-facet auctions and personal placements. Like other funding banks, the advisory companies of Bank of America Merrill Lynch are necessary for corporations looking to increase funds in public markets. When going public, funding bankers help decide the preliminary share value while balancing liquidity and demand. However, a excessive-return, low-risk mixture in a investment product, unfortunately, does not exist. Most buyers need to make investments in such a method that they get sky-high returns as shortly as potential with out the risk of dropping principal cash.
Middle Market Investment Bank Salaries In The United States
On the downside, there was an especially negative individual within the division who received together with no one. Pay was also mergers and acquisitions advisory very low, with only small cost of residing changes annually. While bonuses increased with longevity, you couldn't construct your salary. In a mezzanine loan, there might be collateral within the type of a pledge inventory. Step by step instruction on how the professionals on Wall Street worth an organization. certification program, designed to remodel anyone into a world-class financial analyst. In an actively traded fund, the returns are largely depending on a fund manager's capacity to generate returns. Index funds and trade-traded fund are passively managed, and these observe the underlying index. Equity schemes are categorised based on market-capitalisation or the sectors during which they make investments. The Central Bank with impact from July 1, 2020 has launched Floating Rate Savings Bond, 2020 . The biggest distinction between earlier 7.seventy five% financial savings bonds and the newly launched floating fee bond is that the interest rate on the newly launched financial savings bond is topic to reset in every six months. While they typically have locations spanning a single nation, center market banks are rarely found internationally. Full-service funding banks supply a variety of business and funding providers. Chief Executive’s publications are designed to assist CEOs do their jobs better and run their businesses more effectively. Those that begin doing so now will set up themselves fully in a market that, by design, is much more difficult to oversaturate as a result of its sheer volume.
Regarding Russia and Saudi Arabia. The break even price isn't the whole story. For Russia and Saudi Arabia the cost of extraction alone is low (~$3-4 ) but the problem is the price needed to balance their budgets and maintain a pegged currency. Saudi Arabia:- Currency pegged at 3.75 Riyal / USD. As exports and other inflows drop, the current account balance turns negative, forex reserves (~$500 billion) have to be spent (USD sold) in order to support this rate.- Oil makes up about 85% of the budget revenue. The budget balances at around $80 per barrel, this means debt has to be issued or sovereign wealth fund/reserve assets sold. (~$600-700 billion) Russia:- Russian rouble is free float, so as exports drop, so do imports as they become too expensive. This is opposite of Saudi Case where export flows decrease but imports remain attractive due to currency peg. Therefore forex reserves do not have to be spent (~$550 billion). - Oil and gas make up about 40% of the budget revenue. The Russian Federal budget is based on 2800 roubles/barrel and the rouble is currently trading at 75 to the dollar, to balance at $30 per barrel the currency would have to depreciate to around 90, there are a few reasons it hasn't done so already (OFZ, other inflows) There is a sovereign wealth fund that can be tapped into as well (~$100 billion). The biggest difference is Saudi Arabia has a lot more spare capacity than Russia. The Saudis could pump out an additional 1-2 million barrels, while Russia can do maybe 0.3-0.5. They can inflict more pain, but not sure if they can weather the storm. All in all, both have little to gain especially in the current economic climate. In the long term I think America will come out as the winner here with a more consolidated, restructured industry.
Immediate Aftermath : The more data we collect and analyze, the clearer the picture becomes.
This is the updated first part of the list that has recorded the notable events as the world deals with the COVID-19 pandemic. [2nd Part] ― The LINKS to events and sources are placed throughout the timeline. ------------------------ The More Data We Collect and Analyze, the Clearer the Picture Becomes. Someone threw a stone in a pond a long way away. And we're only just feeling the ripples. — Fukuhara from Giri/Haji, Netflix series ------------------------ On Jan 30, Italian PM announced that Italy had blocked all flights to and from China. While Italy has banned people from air-travelling to China, however according to IATA data, there's no measurement implemented for air-travellers from China into Italy till the Mar 07. Especially for Chinese people who have EU passports. On Jan 31, the US announced the category-I travel restrictions, barring all foreigners who have been in China for the past 14 days, with measures including the refusal of visas and mandatory quarantine. • "Because the US focused on China and didn't expect the infected people's entry from Europe and the Middle East, the Maginot Line was breached from behind. And so little of credible data at the beginning made the US government to miscalculate its strategic response to the virus." — Dr. Zhang Lun, currently a visiting scholar at Harvard (economics & sociology), during the interview with ICPC on Mar 29. Also on Jan 31, the WHO changed its tune and declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency of international concern (PHEIC).
Decisions on a PHEIC always involve politics .... West African countries discouraged a declaration in 2014 after they were hit by the largest Ebola virus outbreak on record, mainly because of concern about the economic impact.
------------------------ On Feb 02, regarding the US category-I travel restrictions, Kamala Harris, the former Democratic presidential candidate, declared on Twitter:
Since 2017, Trump’s travel bans have never been rooted in national security—they’re about discriminating against people of color. They are, without a doubt, rooted in anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideologies. This travel ban is no different.
On Feb 03, criticizing Trump for his travel restrictions continues. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (华春莹), a Peking University professors James Liang (梁建章), New York Times, the Nation, OBSERVER, the Boston Globe, Yahoo, and Daily Kos were saying, it's a "panicky" decision and "racist" or it's "cruel and callous," he's stoking fear for political gains, and the president is "inappropriately overreacting." And professors Liang even said the US ban "will hurt goodwill and cooperation [with China] in the future."          Also on Feb 03, Mr. Tedros of the WHO said there's no need for travel ban measure that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade" trying to halt the spread of the virus.
China's delegate took the floor ... and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the centre of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights.
Also on Feb 03, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. — We'd never find out but my guess is that the fund will probably go to Shanghai clique. On Feb 04, The FDA has given emergency authorization to a new test kit by the CDC that promises to help public health labs meet a potential surge in cases.
The speed ... pushing through a new diagnostic test shows just how seriously they’re taking the potentially pandemic threat of 2019-nCoV. It’s also a sign that the world is starting to learn how to deal with an onslaught of new pathogens.
Also on Feb 04, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS, Chief Chen Wei belongs to) have jointly applied to patent the use of Remdesivir. Scientists from both institutes said in a paper published in Nature’s Cell Research that they found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus. On Feb 06, Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based research & analysis unit, noted that with State Council of PRC praising his performance of containing the pandemic situation, the council expanded Li Keqiang's political control over Politburo Standing Committee of CCP. (Li Keqiang = Communist Youth League = Shanghai clique) Also, on Feb 06, as the US evacuation planes leave China, the wave of the US evacuees have arrived who are met by the CDC personnel at the quarantine sites for screening, and those who were suspected of infection will be placed under quarantine for 14 days. Also, on Feb 06, a CDC-developed lab test kit to detect the new coronavirus began shipping to qualified US laboratories and international ones. — However, on Feb 12, the CDC said some of the testing kits have flaws and do not work properly. The CDC finally ended up shipping the working test kits for mass testings on Feb 27. This was three weeks later than originally planned. On Feb 07, China National Petroleum has recently declared Force Majeure on gas imports. They are trying to create a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to mere USD $3.1 trillion in Oct. 2019. On the same day, Bloomberg reported that PetroChina has directed employees in 20 countries to buy N95 face masks and send them home in China. The goal is to get 2 million masks shipped back. You can also find YouTube videos that show Overseas Chinese are scouring the masks at the Home Depot to ship them to China (the video in Korean). Also Chris Smith is pissed. On Feb 09, Trump renews his national emergency on its southern border, and Elizabeth Goitein from the Brennan Center for Justice, published an opinion article on New York Times titled "Trump Has Abused This Power. And He Will Again if He’s Not Stopped." On Feb 10, Dr. Tedros said that an advance three-person team of the WHO arrived in Beijing for a joint mission to discuss with Chinese officials the agenda and questions. Then, the joint mission of about 10 international experts will soon follow, he said. — Those WHO experts ended up visiting Chinese epicentre for the first time on Feb 24. On Feb 12, the US targets Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions. The US admin seemingly tried to secure leverage against Russia after noticing something suspicious was up. On the same day, Trump told Reuters "I hope this outbreak or this event (for the US) may be over in something like April." — Dr. Zhong Nanshan (钟南山), China's top tier SARS-hero doctor, also said "the peak of the virus (for China) should come in mid to late February, followed by a plateau or decrease," adding that his forecast was based on on mathematical modelling and data from recent events and government action. On Feb 13, Tom Frieden who is a former US CDC chief and currently the head of public health nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives, said:
As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better. [But] We still don't have very basic information. [since the WHO just entered China] We hope that information will be coming out.
On the same day, the CDC reports that the 15th case in the US was confirmed. The patient was a part of group who were under a federal quarantine order at the JBSA-Lackland base because of a recent trip to Hubei Province, China. By Feb 13, China hasn't accepted the US CDC's offer to send top experts, and they haven't released the "disaggregated" data (specific figures broken out from the overall numbers) even though repeatedly been asked. On Feb 14, CCP's United Front posted an article on its official website, saying (Eng. text by Google Translation):
Fast! There is no time difference to raise urgently needed materials! Some Overseas Chinese have used their professions in the field of medicine in order to purchase relevant materials Hubei province in short of supply (to send them to China). .... Some Overseas Chinese took advantage of the connection resources, opened green transportation channels through our embassies and consulates abroad, and their related enterprises, and quickly sent large quantities of medical supplies (to China), making this love relay link and cooperation seamless.
On Feb 18, Reuters reports that 3M is on the list of firms eligible for China loans to ease coronavirus crisis.
There is no indication from the list that loans offered will necessarily be sought, or that such firms are in any financial need. The Bank of Shanghai told Reuters it will lend 5.5 billion yuan ($786 million) to 57 firms on its list.
On Feb 21, Xi Jinping writes a thank-you letter to Bill Gates for his foundation’s support to China regarding COVID-19 outbreak. On Feb 24, China was rumoured on Twitter to delay the phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increase of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years. Also on Feb 24, S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.9 and closed 3128.2. By the Mar 23, it dropped to 2208.9. Also on Feb 24, China's National Health Commission says the WHO experts have visited Wuhan city for the first time, the locked-down central Chinese city at the epicentre, inspecting two hospitals and a makeshift one at a sports centre. On Feb 26, IF the picture that has been circulated on Twitter were real, then chief Chen Wei and her team have developed the first batch of COVID-19 vaccine within time frame of a month. On the same day, the CDC's latest figures displays 59 people in the US who have tested positive for COVID-19. Also on Feb 26, the Washington Post published an article that says:
.... the WHO said it has repeatedly asked Chinese officials for "disaggregated" data — meaning specific figures broken out from the overall numbers — that could shed light on hospital transmission and help assess the level of risk front-line workers face. "We received disaggregated information at intervals, though not details about health care workers," said Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO. — The comment, in an email on Feb 22 to the Post, was one of the first instances that the WHO had directly addressed shortcomings in China's reporting or handling of the coronavirus crisis.
On Feb 27, after missteps, the CDC says its test kit is ready and the US started to expand testing. On Feb 28, China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs to factories used by global brands such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others. Also on Feb 28, the WHO published the official report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019. (PDF) On Feb 29, quoting Caixin media's investigation published on the same day, Lianhe Zaobao, the largest Singapore-based Chinese-language newspaper, published an article reporting the following:
Dr. Li Wenliang said in the interview with Caixin media; [in Dec 2019] another doctor (later turned out to be Dr. Ai Fen) examined and tried to treat a patient who exhibited SARS-like symptoms which akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. And "the family members who took care of her (the patient) that night also had a fever, and her other daughter also had a fever. This is obviously from person to person" Dr. Li said in the interview."
------------------------ On Mar 01, China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian internet law. On the same day,Princelings published an propaganda called "A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020" which compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus. Starting on Mar 03, the US Fed has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus. It's going to be no use as if a group of people with serious means are manipulating the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns when they need it most. On Mar 04, Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article "Be bold: the world should thank China" which states that
If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only, the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic.
On Mar 05, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely. On Mar 07, Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. — Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & BlackRock: One common factor that connects these people is China. On Mar 08, the Russia–Saudi oil price war has begun. The ostensible reason was simple: China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers while claiming that the outbreak forced its economy to a standstill. On Mar 10, the Washington Post published the article saying that the trade group for manufacturers of personal protective equipment urged in 2009 "immediate action" to restock the national stockpile including N95 masks, but it hasn't been replenished since. On Mar 11, the gentleman at the WHO declares the coronavirus outbreak a "Global Pandemic." He called on governments to change the course of the outbreak by taking "urgent and aggressive action." This was a full twelve days after the organization published the official report regarding the situation in China. On Mar 13, the US admin declared a National Emergency and announced the plan to release $50 billion in federal resources amid COVID-19. Also on Mar 13, China's Ministry of Commerce states that China is now the best region for global investment hedging. On Mar 15, Business Insider reports that Trump tried to poach German scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine and offered cash so it would be exclusive to the US. The problem is the official CureVac (the German company) twitter account, on Mar 16, 2020, tweeted the following:
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press.
On Mar 16, the fan club of European globalists has published a piece titled, "China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity." The piece says:
The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. ... it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.
On the same day, unlike China that had one epicentre, Wuhan city, the US now overtakes China with most cases reporting multiple epicentres simultaneously. Also on Mar 16, the US stocks ended sharply lower with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope. On Mar 17, according to an article on Chinese version of Quora, Zhihu, chief Chen Wei and her team with CanSino Biologics officially initiated a Phase-1 clinical trial for COVID-19 vaccine at the Wuhan lab, Hubei China, which Bloomberg News confirmed. — Click HERE, then set its time period as 1 year, and see when the graph has started to move up. Also on Mar 17, China's state media, China Global TV Network (CGTN), has produced YouTube videos for Middle Eastern audiences to spread the opinion that the US has engineered COVID-19 events. Also on Mar 17, Al Jazeera reported that the US President has been criticized for repeatedly referring to the coronavirus as the "Chinese Virus" as critics saying Trump is "fueling bigotry." • China's Xinhua News tweeted "Racism is not the right tool to cover your own incompetence." • Tucker Carlson asked: "Why would America's media take China's side amid coronavirus pandemic?" • Also, Mr. Bill Gates: "We should not call this the Chinese virus." On Mar 19, for the first time, China reports zero local infections. Also on Mar 19, Al Jazeera published an analysis report, titled "Coronavirus erodes Trump's re-election prospects." On Mar 22, Bloomberg reports that China's mobile carriers lost 21 million users during this pandemic event. It's said to be the first net decline since starting to report monthly data in 2000. On Mar 26, EURACTV reports that China cashes in off coronavirus, selling Spain $466 million in supplies. However, Spain returns 9,000 "quick result" test kits to China, because they were deemed substandard. — Especially the sensibility of the test was around 30 percent, when it should be higher than 80 percent. ------------------------ On Apr 03, Germany and other governments are bolstering corporate defenses to address worries that coronavirus-weakened companies could be easy prey for bargain hunting by China's state owned businesses. On Apr 05, New York Times says "Trump Again Promotes Use of Unproven Anti-Malaria Drug (hydroxychloroquine)." On Apr 06, a Democratic State Rep. Karen Whitsett from Detroit credits hydroxychloroquine and President Trump for "saving her in her battle with the coronavirus." On Apr 07, the US CDC removed the following part from its website.
Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.
------------------------ ☞ If there were ever a time for people not to be partisan and tribal, the time has come: We need to be ever vigilant and attentive to all kinds of disinformation & misinformation to see it better as well as to be sharp in our lives. — We really do need to come together. ☞ At first, I was going to draw up a conspiracy theory-oriented list focused on Team-Z, especially Mr. Gates. However, although it's nothing new tbh, recently many chats and discussions seem overflowing with disinformation & misinformation which is, in my opinion, particularly painful at a time like this. Hence, this post became a vanilla list that's just recorded the notable events. — We all are subject to misinformation, miscalculation, and misjudgment. But the clearer the picture becomes the better we can identify Funkspiel. ------------------------ ☞ Immediate Aftermath pt.2.a ------------------------ ☞ Feasible Timeline of the Operation ------------------------ ☞ Go Back to the Short Story. ----
Forex Reserves – India must now put its massive forex reserves to better use
forex reserves During the week, India’s forex reserves crossed the psychological $500 billion mark. India has come a long way from having just 15 days of imports as forex reserves in 1991 when she had to pledge gold to the Bank of England. Now there is a problem of plenty! Forex reserves ranking For the first time since the forex chest began to be recorded, India entered the top-5 in terms of forex reserves. India ranks behind China, Japan, Switzerland and Russia and has overtaken Taiwan, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia. KSA, at one point of time held over $750 billion in its forex reserves but 5 years of weak oil prices meant that Saudi Arabia has been forced to draw heavily on its forex reserves despite cutting down on many of its welfare outlays. India can hope to overtake Russia soon. China leads the rankings with $3.5 trillion in reserves. Why are reserves building up? There are multiple reasons why the forex reserves are building up. Firstly, the sharp fall in oil import bill has brought down the trade deficit by more than 50% on a monthly basis. Secondly, the forex remittances from NRIs have been extremely robust with most of the world markets offering either zero or negative rates of returns. Lastly, RBI intervention in the forex markets has reduced substantially and that has also helped forex reserves build-up. Know more: http://blog.tradeplusonline.com/stock-market-updates/forex-reserves-india-must-now-put-its-massive-forex-reserves-to-better-use/
Prelude to a Market Bloodbath: a Ludicrous Theory of How It All Started.
The text below was actually a comment of mine on another Redditor's post, but since I think they all left for the day, I have decided to create a standalone post with it. Even though it's my theory, tbh I prefer the other theory of mine, which is: From the COVID-19 outbreak to the great oil war between Russia & Saudi to the market crash, this whole event is a live simulation that some powerful group is executing for their future plan. But today, I would like to present my less favourable theory: Theory of How COVID-19 Pandemic Has Started. Obviously, for some parts, I got the sources. But for others, it's just a speculation based on the wellknown (?) inner working (political) systems of China. ----------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------- Both Shanghai clique (Jiang Zemin) and Communist Youth League (Hu Jintao) want to unseat Xi Jinping. .A. Because: Shanghai clique detests Xi Jinping because Xi & his Princelings put many key politburo of Shanghai clique in jail in the name of anti-corruption. And Princelings took away Shanghai clique's influences from big key Chinese businesses such as Wanda Group, Alibaba Group & Tencent. Communist Youth League loathes Xi Jinping because Xi & his Princelings broke China's 太上王 institution, the nation's long standing political treaty among the ruling classes, by sidelining most of Hu Jintao's prominent politburo in the council. Subsequently, the political power of Li Keqiang's (Communist Youth League) within State Council has been dramatically minimized over the years, although he is the No. 2 party figure. It was a break with two previous generations of leadership, which were based on consensus among members of the ruling party’s inner circle of power, the Standing Committee, a.k.a China's 太上王 institution. So, Shanghai clique and Communist Youth League decided to work together to hatch a seemingly perfect plan: - Unseating Xi Jinping would be the best outcome, but they knew it would be laborious. - While keep trying to unseat Xi, this operation by their plan should be something to weaken Xi Jinping's power within State Council. - The operation should also reboot the political power of Li Keqiang to re-boost the current status of Communist Youth League within State Council. - The operation should also restore the financial flow for Shanghai clique & the businesses that are still under Shanghai clique's control. - By weakening Xi Jinping's power, the operation should reinstate Shanghai clique's control of (at least some of) key businesses of the nation. - Used-to-be hyper wealthy Shanghai clique decided they were to be okay with what's going to happen in the field, colossal businesses loss in the region; because 1) most of better businesses used to be owned by them have been already taken away by Princelings anyway. And 2) a while ago their foreign financial backers, such as Henry Kissinger, George Soros & Koos Bekker who used to be kissy kissy with them, left for the new power in China. Now those backers seems to be in bed with Xi. And 3) Xi started to crack down Shanghai clique's assets hidden overseas with the inside-info those backers provided to Xi. exploding head gifs - The operation's process must appear natural, so the blame could never fall onto neither of Shanghai clique nor Communist Youth League. - For the operation, they needed to pick an appropriate region where the influence of Shanghai clique and Communist Youth League were still prevalent. - All the blame should fall under Xi & Princelings' political and bureaucratic incompetence. .B. Preparation: - Dr. Wang Yanyi is a Chinese immunologist. She is the director general at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and the deputy director for Wuhan in the China Zhi Gong Party. - Dr. Wang Yanyi is married to Chinese professor Shu Hongbing. - Shu Hongbing is a Chinese cytologist and immunologist. He is a tier-1 member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and a close associate of Jiang Mianheng thru said Academy and Shanghai Tech University connection. - Jiang Mianheng is Jiang Zemin's son (Jiang Zemin = No. 1 in Shanghai clique). Jiang Mianheng has served as Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the first President of ShanghaiTech University. - Because many international bodies are closely monitoring the NBL-4 facility in Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory and in turn the NBL-3 facility in the same laboratory attracts fewer observing eyes from outside bodies, they decided to use the latter to pick & modify the pathogen. - The pathogen's spreading speed should be rapid to achieve the maximum effect. - Jiang Chaoliang is a pro-Shanghai clique Chinese politician and he was the Communist Party Secretary of Hubei. - Later, as a result of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, Jiang Chaoliang has been replaced by Ying Yong, a close ally of Xi Jinping. .C. Operation: - The operators released a pathogen of their choice in Hubei near the end of 2019. The holiday season was coming up, so there would be large frequent crowds to spread the pathogen. - Some people in the region started to experience flu like symptoms but they didn't think much about it because it's a Winter season. - Seeing numerous passengers were unusually ill, the cab drivers in Wuhan city knew something was up with the area close to the city laboratory. - The number of flu patients in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University and Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University started to curiously go up. - The CPC bureaucrats in said hospitals started to report the situation to their superiors. Then, in turn, those superiors reported to politburo in State Council. - Finally, Xi Jinping received the news regarding the situation in Wuhan city. - On Jan. 7, 2020, Xi demanded during a Politburo Standing Committee to take care of the situation. - Jiang Chaoliang and the other pro-Shanghai clique politburo in Hubei province pretended listening to Xi's order but they quietly ignored it by suppressing the evidences + sabotaging the field. -- Have you read the article which was reporting that the researchers received a gag order from China’s NHC with instructions to destroy the samples? - Shanghai clique & Communist Youth League told their relatives and close associates to leave the region. It would look business as usual because it's near the Chinese New Year holiday season. - Remember, Academics & the related institutions in China are Shanghai clique's turf. - On Jan. 14, W.H.O declared that "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China." - On Jan. 20, 2020, after realizing his previous directions were conveniently ignored, Xi gave special instructions to control the now-became outbreak. - But again the pro-Shanghai clique politburo in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province pretended following Xi's instructions but ultimately ignored those by still sabotaging the proceedings. - Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang allowed and in fact applauded a massive annual potluck banquet for 40,000 families from a city precinct, who (on the ordinary people levels) are mostly the supporters of Xi Jinping. ---- It's going to be interesting to see who they would blame later on if there were to be a disaster in the region. - On Jan. 23, 2020, after having confirmed their relatives and close associates left the region, they imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province. - Before the lockdown, 5 million people have already left Wuhan city. It was on. Some of them went to their homes in the different regions of China. But some people with connections & means left China and went to U.S., South Korea, Iran, Italy, & France, which are Chinese tourists' popular destinations. - Xi Jinping and his Princelings now suspected something was not right. Xi disappeared from the public view. - Willy Lam, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, commented that Xi Jinping's activities after his lengthy public disappearance looked like an attempt to shift blame to Li Keqiang if progress in fighting the disease is unsatisfactory. .D. Outcome: - With his performance of containing the situation were being praised by State Council, Li Keqiang's political power has been expanded within the council. ---- Li Keqiang belongs to China's Communist Youth League, which has been under Shanghai clique's control. ----------------------------------------------- - On Feb. 1, the US was the one of the first nations in the world along with Russia and N. Korea that banned not just Chinese nationals but all foreigners travelling from mainland China, declares public health emergency. And China and some US media criticized Trump for stoking fear and overreacting. - On Feb. 3, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. ---- Let's see where those money will go to. (Actually we would never find out but it will probably go to key people of Shanghai clique.) - On Feb. 7, China National Petroleum Corp. has recently declared Force Majeure on gas imports. They are trying to make a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to mere USD $3.1 trillion in Oct. 2019. - On Feb. 12, the US targets Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions. ---- My guess is that at this moment, the US admin noticed something is up, so they tried to secure some leverage against Russia. - Around Feb. 24, China is rumoured (on Twitter) to delay its US-China phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increasement of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years. - If China indeed delays the phase one trade deal implementation, there won't be many comebacks (such as more tariffs) that the US can carry through, because now the pandemic is happening within the US Soil. - On Feb. 24, S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.89 and closed 3128.21. By Feb. 28, it dropped to 2954.22. - On Feb 28, China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs to factories used by global brands such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others. ----------------------------------------------- - On Mar. 1, China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian internet law. - On Mar. 1, Princelings published an awesome propaganda called A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020 which compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus. - Starting at Mar. 3, the Fed has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus. - On Mar. 4, Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article "Be bold: the world should thank China (理直气壮, 世界应该感谢中国)." - Said article states "If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only (banning exports), the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic." - This Xinhua article would be in part Shanghai clique's grand posturing (who are holding political power & capacity in medicals & biochemicals of China) to show off to people of China that Shanghai clique is still relevant in power. - On Mar. 5, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely. - On Mar. 7, Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. ---- Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & Morgan Stanley. - Interestingly, one common factor that connects Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & Morgan Stanley is China. - On Mar. 8, the Russia–Saudi oil price warhas initiated. The ostensible reason was simple. China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers as the coronavirus outbreak forced the economy to a standstill. - On, Mar. 13, China's Ministry of Commerce states that China is now the best region for global investment hedging. - On Mar. 16, the fan club of Europe globalists (:D) has published a piece, China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity. The piece says the following: Combined with the new aid disbursements and advice the other countries, Chinese leaders appear to be hoping that their heavily-promoted success in fighting the virus helps Beijing appear like a global leader on public health – and thus ready to take on other types of global leadership. “The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful” [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. This is not necessarily true. After all, other wealthy Asian states have shown different, effective models. But it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world. - On Mar. 16, the US stocks ended sharply lower with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history and falling to its lowest level in nearly three years. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope. ----------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------- Many thanks for reading up my long ass post!! -- The updated version is hopefully coming soon. :D
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning September 23rd, 2019
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on wallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning September 23rd, 2019.
Week ahead: As stocks struggle to break to new highs, markets could be swayed by Fed speakers, trade - (Source)
Developments in U.S.-Chinese trade talks and the comments from a host of Fed speakers could be important for markets in the week ahead, as stocks struggle to regain highs. The Fed in the past week cut interest rates for the second time in two months, but the latest forecasts of Fed officials showed just how divided they are on the need for future rate cuts. Five wanted deeper cuts, five didn’t want any cuts and another seven were happy with the Fed’s action. “The market seems like it’s pretty jumpy based on what the say. i think it would flip back and forth depending on how the headlines come out,” said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies. Simons said the focus will also be on the Fed’s operations in the short-term funding market, after turbulence in the overnight market in the past week temporarily sent some overnight rates sharply higher. There are nearly a dozen Fed speakers on the calendar in the coming week, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is not scheduled to speak. Trade developments could continue to cause volatility in markets. Reports Friday that Chinese agriculture officials canceled visits to farms in Montana and Nebraska sent stocks lower, for fear it signaled that talks were not making progress. Stocks in the past week were lower, with the S&P off about 0.5% to 2,992. The index had been around 1% away from its all-time high for a few weeks. “Tech that has been out of play and is acting faulty. it’s now turning into a headwind, and that could cause a problem for the bulls,” said Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com. “I haven’t seen so many mixed signals in the market in quite some time.” “It’s hard for the market to make new highs without tech. At best, it’s concerning when you see key names, like Amazon and Netflix, not just failing to lead but faltering,” he said. Netflix was down more than 8% for the week, and Amazon was off 2.6%. Redler said it was a concern that shares of market leader Microsoft gave up its initial gains and turned negative, soon after it announced a buyback and raised its dividend. “Strength was sold instead of embraced,” he said. “That was good news. What are they going to do when bad news happens?” Following the attacks on Saudi Aramco last week, the United Nations General Assembly in New York and meetings around it take on more importance for markets. U.S. and Saudi Arabian officials have said Iran was behind the attack, which knocked a significant amount of Saudi oil production off line. Iran has denied involvement, and Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. Iran’ President Hassan Rouhani has been given a visa to travel to New York for the UN. Before the attack on Saudi Arabia last week, President Donald Trump had suggested he would speak to Rouhani but there seems little chance of that now. Oil have been highly volatile, with Brent crude futures up 7% since the attack as Saudi Arabia sought to assure markets that it would be able to bring its operations back on line. There is some economic data that will also be important to markets. There is manufacturing PMI Monday, important after ISM manufacturing data showed a contraction in August. Durable goods will also be important on Friday, as will personal consumption data, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE deflator. “What Powell said in his remarks was inflation was below his target,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “But even the core PCE deflator is expected to be 1.8, a new high for the year.” The Fed’s target inflation rate is 2%, and other inflation measures have been above that, including core CPI. The Fed will also be in focus after problems in the overnight funding market, used by banks in need of short term cash. Rates spiked for repo, or repurchase agreements, in a chaotic two-day period Monday and Tuesday. The Fed’s target fed funds rate also moved above its target range, in an unusual move. The market has since calmed after the Fed carried out open market operations to add liquidity to the market. On Friday, it announced three 14-day operations involving $30 billion as well as continued overnight operations of at least $75 billion each. “I think the Fed has absolute control over short term rates. It was caught sleeping at the wheel,” said Chandler. Powell said the Fed would monitor the market and take whatever action is needed. The market is considered the basic plumbing for financial markets, where banks who have a short-term need for cash come to fund themselves. The odd spike in rates was viewed as the result of a cash crunch, not a credit crisis. Bond market pros have been concerned that the Fed would again see strains in the market at month end, when there’s more activity in the overnight funding market. “It gets you further past quarter end,” said Jon Hill, rate strategist at BMO. “A 14-day pushes them further into October. I think nerves will have calmed. The fact you’ll see fed funds print clearly in the range will reassert confidence. These operations will serve as a reminder that the Fed can have absolute control the front end if and when it wants to. This is a good thing.” The funds rate was at 1.90% Thursday, within the target rate range of 1.75% to 2%. “They’re removing any doubt of their ability to take control of fed funds in the modern framework. They just announced $165 billion over quarter-end , and we may go bigger. They haven’t done a repo injection in 10 years,” said Hill.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
S&P 500 down 23 of 29 during week after September options expiration, average loss 0.95%
The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines especially since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 29 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just three times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses. Full stats are in the following sea-of-red table. Average losses since 1990 are even worse; DJIA –1.02%, S&P 500 –0.95%, NASDAQ –0.90% and a sizable –1.38% for Russell 2000. End-of-Q3 portfolio restructuring is the most likely explanation for this trend as managers trim summer losers and position for the fourth quarter.
October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in point and percentage terms. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens.
Pre-election year Octobers are ranked second from last for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ while Russell 2000 is dead last with an average loss of 1.9%. Eliminating gruesome 1987 from the calculation provides only a moderate amount of relief. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for depressed technology and small-cap shares.
Where’s That September Volatility?
September is historically known as one of the worst for stocks, yet in 2019 the S&P 500 Index is up 2.7% so far amid a sea of scary headlines. Incredibly, the S&P 500 has wavered less than 0.1% from its previous close 6 of the past 10 trading sessions, as it consolidates just beneath all-time highs. “Over the past two weeks we’ve had the European Central Bank meeting, the Federal Reserve meeting, higher inflation, a historic jump in crude oil, Middle East turmoil, trouble in the repo market, and even multiple NFL quarterbacks sustaining major injuries,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yet, with all of those scary headlines, stocks are actually in the midst of one of the least volatile two-week stretches we’ve seen in years.” We are quite encouraged by the overall change in market tone we’ve heard recently, with more cyclical names taking the baton and leading, but with the S&P 500 up near our fair value target of 3,000, we would be on the lookout for this sea of tranquility to get rougher at any time. In fact, according to historical calendars, we may need to be on high guard for the second half of September. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, The Second Half of September Can Be Tricky For Stocks, later in the month of September is when we’ve seen seasonal weakness. Things have been going well for equities in the face of some worrisome headlines, but don’t get complacent, as the calendar could be one of the biggest near-term risks.
“History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” Mark Twain As expected, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy committee cut its policy rate by 25 basis points (.25%) to a target range of 1.75%–2%. This comes on the heels of the first rate cut in more than 10 years at the end of July. This cut is somewhat more controversial, however, because the overall U.S. economic data has been improving, and there’s been a tick higher in inflation. One of the most important questions heading into this meeting was how many voting Fed members would support additional rate cuts. There were two dissenting voting members at the July rate cut, and once again there were two votes opposed to today’s cut—but unlike last time, there was also one dissenter who favored a larger 50 basis point (.50%) cut. Materials in the economic projections indicated 10 of 17 participants (which includes non-voting members) did not believe additional cuts would be needed over the remainder of the year, although evolving economic conditions could certainly lead to a shift. As the quote from Mark Twain suggests, by looking back at history we can potentially find clues as to what might happen in the future. Looking back at the previous two recessions (2001 and 2008), the Fed cut rates 50 basis points (.50%) to kick off the new cycle of rate cuts. We looked back at what the Fed said at the time, and policymakers didn’t foresee a recession; the larger .50% cut might have been their way of showing how worried they really were at the time. In other words, maybe the Fed knew there potentially was trouble under the surface. Compare this with three consecutive 25 basis point (.25%) cuts in the 1995/1996 and 1998 rate cut cycles, which led to continued equity gains and avoided recessions. Given we foresee one more cut this year, could it be another three cuts of 25 basis points (.25%) and then an economic acceleration? “Here’s the catch. When the first two cuts in a new cycle of rate cuts are only 25 basis points, this could be the Fed’s way of truly viewing the cuts as insurance,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, the past five cycles of cuts that started with two 25 basis point cuts saw the S&P 500 Index move higher 6 and 12 months later every single time.” As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Stocks Have Historically Done Well If The First Two Fed Rate Cuts Are 25 Basis Points, the S&P 500 was up an average of 9.7% six months after the second of two 25 basis point cuts to kick off a new cycle of rate cuts. Going out a year, the S&P 500 had gained a very impressive average of 16.7%.
Strong Start for September, but Second Half Could Bring Trouble
As of Friday’s close the market is well above historical average performance in September. DJIA was up nearly 3.1%, S&P 500 was up 2.8%, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 were up 2.7% while Russell 2000 was up 5.6%. Small-caps outperforming large-caps recently is not unusual and they did so again today. However, the second half of September has historically been weaker than the first half. The week after options expiration week can be treacherous with S&P 500 logging 23 weekly losses in 29 years since 1990. End-of-quarter portfolio restructuring, and window dressing can amplify the impacts of any negative headlines.
With shares of FedEx (FDX) on pace for their second worst earnings reaction day since at least 2001, the Dow Transports, an index in which FDX has a weighting of over 8% (after today's decline), is down close to 2%. Historically, the Transports have been considered a leading indicator of the economy, so the weakness in FDX, and by extension, the Dow Transports, is resulting in heightened concerns over the state of the economy. Looking at the chart below, the picture for the Transports doesn't look pretty. The timing of today's decline couldn't have been worse as it came just as the Transports were attempting to break above the highs from July, but now it just looks like the second lower high this year. Following today's declines, the Dow Transports are up 14.7% YTD which is about five percentage points behind the performance of the S&P 500.
Given the changes in the US economy over time, we've been skeptical of the continued predictive ability of the Transports, but even putting that aside for a moment, a broader look at Transports shows a less pessimistic picture. The chart below shows the performance of the stocks in the S&P 1500 index on an equal-weighted basis so far in 2019. By this measure, today's decline comes after the index made a higher high, and while it's back below those former highs today, with a gain of 20.5% YTD, this broader look at transports is still outperforming the S&P 500 on a YTD basis. It may not be a great picture for this group of transport stocks, but it doesn't really look bad either.
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
Friday 9.27.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
Micron Technology, Inc. $49.16
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, September 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.43 per share on revenue of $4.51 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.38 to $0.52 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 87.92% with revenue decreasing by 46.56%. Short interest has decreased by 21.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 37.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.2% above its 200 day moving average of $39.90. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 12,865 contracts of the $50.00 put expiring on Friday, September 27, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.1% move in recent quarters.
NIO Inc. (NIO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 AM ET on Tuesday, September 24, 2019. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 51% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $169.00 million to $193.00 million. Short interest has increased by 25.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 26.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.6% below its 200 day moving average of $5.03. On Wednesday, September 4, 2019 there was some notable buying of 40,590 contracts of the $1.50 put expiring on Friday, November 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 17.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 9.7% move in recent quarters.
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $21.64 per share on revenue of $3.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $21.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 16.72% with revenue increasing by 10.71%. Short interest has increased by 23.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 15.6% above its 200 day moving average of $1,003.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:35 AM ET on Tuesday, September 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.33 per share on revenue of $5.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.38 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.26% with revenue increasing by 5.54%. Short interest has increased by 0.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.9% above its 200 day moving average of $73.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 6, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,023 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.
Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, September 24, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $10.45 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.76 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.97% with revenue increasing by 5.05%. Short interest has increased by 0.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.1% above its 200 day moving average of $82.50. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, September 16, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,646 contracts of the $84.00 call expiring on Friday, September 27, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
BlackBerry Limited (BB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 24, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.01 per share and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 32% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 150.00% with revenue increasing by 375.71%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 9.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.9% below its 200 day moving average of $8.10. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, September 17, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,012 contracts of the $8.00 call expiring on Friday, September 27, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, September 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $5.42 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 900.00% with revenue decreasing by 0.03%. Short interest has increased by 22.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.4% below its 200 day moving average of $11.64. On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 580 contracts of the $7.00 call expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 20.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 20.5% move in recent quarters.
Cantel Medical Corp. (CMD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, September 23, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.61 per share on revenue of $238.60 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.61% with revenue increasing by 4.26%. Short interest has increased by 47.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 27.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.7% above its 200 day moving average of $76.78. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 571 contracts of the $90.00 call expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.9% move in recent quarters.
Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Thursday, September 26, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.71 per share on revenue of $11.08 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.74 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 67% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.23% with revenue increasing by 4.11%. Short interest has increased by 23.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.3% above its 200 day moving average of $173.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 13, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,279 contracts of the $115.00 put expiring on Friday, November 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.
Uxin Limited (UXIN) is confirmed to report earnings before the market opens on Monday, September 23, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for revenue of $130.00 million to $137.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 200.00% with revenue increasing by 892.95%. The stock has drifted higher by 44.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.5% below its 200 day moving average of $3.41. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, September 20, 2019 there was some notable buying of 509 contracts of the $4.00 call expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 24.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.5% move in recent quarters.
So here is the core element of what I believe, drives US foreign policy (Wars/Conflicts/Sanctions) and also domestic policy. I tried to trim my draft down so it's not a TLDR, but not leave out any critical information or citations/sources. This is pulled directly from this brief article: Petrodollar "KEY TAKEAWAYS
Petrodollars are dollars paid to oil-producing countries for oil.
The emergence of the petrodollar dates back to the early 1970s when the U.S. reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia to standardize the sale of oil based on the U.S. dollar.
Petrodollar recycling creates demand for U.S. assets when dollars received for oil sales are used to buy investments in the United States.
Recycling of petrodollars is beneficial to the greenback because it promotes non-inflationary growth.
A move away from petrodollars could potentially increase borrowing costs for governments, companies, and consumers if sources of money become scarce."
This list of facts should make clear just how dependent US currency is on the global oil economy. Which brings us to something called The Triffin Dilemma . "By "agreeing" to have its currency used as a reserve currency, a country pins its hands behind its back. In order to keep the global economy chugging along, it may have to inject large amounts of currency into circulation, driving upinflationat home. The more popular the reserve currency is relative to other currencies, the higher itsexchange rateand the less competitive domestic exporting industries become. This causes atrade deficitfor the currency-issuing country, but makes the world happy. If the reserve currency country instead decides to focus on domestic monetary policy by not issuing more currency then the world is unhappy." "Reserve Currency ParadoxBecoming a reserve currency presents countries with a paradox. They want the "interest-free" loan generated by selling currency to foreign governments, and the ability to raisecapitalquickly, because of high demand for reserve currency-denominated bonds. At the same time they want to be able to use capital andmonetary policyto ensure that domestic industries are competitive in the world market, and to make sure that the domestic economy is healthy and not running large trade deficits. Unfortunately, both of these ideas – cheap sources of capital and positivetrade balances– can't really happen at the same time." Obviously, the US and global economy is a complex system with many moving parts but I think, just this small amount of information begins to clarify the bigger picture. It seems as though most people have accepted the idea that we have engaged in bad faith wars in the name of stealing oil, which is true on some level, but we are not actually trying to seize the oil, we are trying to force the entire world to participate in OUR oil economy in a way that benefits us the most. Which leads me to the final part of this post. The Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) is a collection of approximately 120 nations that have joined together, starting back during the cold war, in an effort to remain independent and not be pressured in to choosing sides between the US and Russia. Many of these countries, such as Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and most recently, Venezuela and Syria, have either dropped the petrodollar or made efforts to trade in other currencies. If this list looks familiar, it's because we have invaded, occupied and/or attempted regime change backed by MSM reporting of human rights violations or threat of nuclear proliferation. Obviously, we have pretty solid evidence that most of these claims were completely false. One of the main focuses of NAM these days, has been to conduct trade and handle the oil on their land, any way they see fit and they have been mounting a pretty strong coalition in response to the insanely harsh sanctions that we have tried to levy. Article About NAM and US Sanctions . This is essentially economic terrorism and unfortunately, most people, including myself, are not quite able to grasp just how de-stabilizing these sanctions are but it is slowly becoming clear to the public that we have been carrying out this policy of global dominance for decades. The Trump WH and John Bolton just happen to be much more open about their motives: In January, White House National Security Advisor John Boltonissueda veiled threat on Twitter:My advice to bankers, brokers, traders, facilitators, and other businesses: don’t deal in gold, oil, or other Venezuelan commodities being stolen from the Venezuelan people by the Maduro mafia. We stand ready to continue to take action. On his Twitter account, Trumpinsisted, “We have only one real currency in the USA, and it is stronger than ever, both dependable and reliable. It is by far the most dominant currency anywhere in the World, and it will always stay that way. It is called the United States Dollar!” I realize that this may not be the most exciting topic, considering the kind of news we have been peppered with recently, but I think it is important for people to consider. It seems pretty clear that almost all of our military operations around the world have everything to do with giant oil companies, defense contractors and the petrodollar and have nothing to do with spreading democracy or freeing civilians from oppressive regimes. Our allegiance with Saudi Arabia makes a lot more sense and our insane obsession on Russia also starts to take focus. Russia is also a member of NAM and is basically the biggest country that has chosen to defy the US. And since we can't push them around like a weaker country, we rely on a constant fear-mongering campaign by our media outlets. Following the NAM summit, Venezuelan Economy Minister Tareck El Aissamiannouncedhis country’s establishment of a payment system to meet obligations to Russia that will be covered with rubles. The developments have sent the US establishment into a frenzy. Still working on part 2, but hope some people will find this informative....
India should take this opportunity to hedge it's oil supply
The current oil price war is a once in a generation event. In terms of the COVID caused demand shock and the Saudi-Russian supply shock, it's a once in a lifetime event. The time to hedge is now. To guarantee low oil prices for India for the coming year (s) and heal our current account deficit. What is hedging? A 'hedge' is a financial contract whereby you agree to purchase oil at a pre-determined price. Hedges are used to reduce price risk and they are a popular strategy used by some large oil users (particularly airlines) to ensure that fuel price volatility doesn't affect their plans. Typically, under the contract, a user will offer to purchase oil at a fixed price at a later date. (say for eg. Jan 2021). The supplier will purchase oil today and will store it for delivery at that later date. If oil prices are so low, why should we hedge? Neither Saudi or Russia can afford to engage in this oil price war for too long. Their economies and forex reserves are too intertwined to be able to afford to fight this war for too long. They are going to cave sooner or later. Furthermore, the main target of the oil price war is the US Shale oil Industry. This industry is a 400 pound gorilla in the oil world which has transformed energy markets and made US a net oil exporter, a feat unimaginable a few years ago. Essentially, clever American entrepreneurs learnt to extract oil from shale rock using advanced technology and caused the largest net increase in production in the shortest span of time. Between 2005 and 2020, the US has MORE THAN TRIPLED it's oil production. However, shale oil requires prices of over 40-50$ a barrel to be economical. https://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-shale-costs-analysis/few-u-s-shale-firms-can-withstand-prolonged-oil-price-war-idINKBN2130HL Once the shale producers are destroyed we will once again be at the mercy of OPEC and the Arabs. Have we seen such an oil price war before? Yes. In the late 1980s, late 90s and between 2014-2016. Each time Saudi blinked and reduced oil production to shore up prices. https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/why-saudi-arabia-s-oil-price-war-is-doomed-to-fail-fuel-for-thought Do countries use hedges to hedge their oil supply? Sort of. While typical consumers who hedge are usually airlines. Suppliers often hedge as well. Mexico (which is a large oil exporter) annually hedges almost all of it's production in what is called a 'Hacienda Hedge'. This year's hedge has saved the Mexican Economy https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Mexicos-Oil-Hedge-Just-Saved-Its-Economy.html When is it a right time to hedge? This one is tricky. The ideal time to hedge is when oil prices are near their bottom. Just like there is talk of 'flattening the curve' with Covid, for traded commodities the best time to hedge is the 'bottom of the curve' This chart shows the price of 1 barrel of Brent Crude oil up to 80 months into the future. That's almost 5 years! https://www.erce.energy/graph/brent-futures-curve The price of oil 5 years from now is shown to be currently at 54 dollars a barrel. That is much lower than what we were paying just last year in September when Saudi oil facilities were attacked. What are the risks? The risks are mainly three fold.
Hedges work essentially by storing cheap oil today and having it delivered at a later date. As India is a large oil importer, any attempt to hedge oil consumption will immediately cause oil prices to rise. Therefore, while it may not be possible to hedge all of India's oil consumption, it is certainly possible to hedge a significant part of it.
India will not be able to take advantage of lower oil prices if prices CONTINUE to stay low. However, past history shows this is unlikely.
Indian Oil PSUs also export large amounts of their products overseas due to surplus refining capacity. However, if oil prices continue to be low, the relative cost of their products increases and export become uneconomical.
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